161 combat engagements recorded in 24 hours. Russia carried out 82 airstrikes dropping 263 guided aerial bombs and deployed 8,107 Shahed-type drones. 3,777 additional shelling attacks including 83 MLRS strikes on populated areas. Heaviest contact in Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Lyman sectors. 430,000 consumers lost power in Nizhyn, Pryluky, and Chernihiv after Russian energy infrastructure strike.
Russia massing for a Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. US Annual Threat Assessment: Russia "maintains upper hand" and "sees little reason to stop fighting." Ukraine struck Kremniy El microchip plant (Bryansk) with Storm Shadow missiles March 12. Saratov and Ryazan refineries also hit this week. Peace talks stalled. Hungary/Slovakia blocking €93B EU aid package. Ukraine reopened Druzhba pipeline March 18 — direct consequence of Iran LNG crisis.
!! BREAKING: Iranian ballistic missile struck Dimona — adjacent to Israel's Negev Nuclear Research Center. 47 wounded including 10-year-old with serious injuries. IDF confirmed direct hit. Natanz struck a second time today — IAEA confirms no radiation release. Iran launched ICBM-class missile at Diego Garcia — US-UK Indian Ocean base. UK condemned "reckless attacks on allied infrastructure." Iran claims strikes on Al-Minhad (UAE) and Ali Al Salem (Kuwait) airbases.
UKMTO: CRITICAL. 21 vessel attacks since March 1. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vows Hormuz "will remain closed." Oil $115/bbl (+45%). Container freight +180%. 28% shipping rerouted Cape of Good Hope. Ras Laffan (20% global LNG), Ras Tanura (Aramco's largest refinery — suspended) both struck. Khamenei killed Feb 28; Ali Larijani killed March 17. USS Boxer (4,500 Marines) en route. Katz: strikes will "increase significantly" this week.
The RSF recaptured Bara — 40 miles north of el-Obeid in North Kordofan on March 16 after SAF had taken it March 5. RSF and allied SPLM-N al-Hilu assaulted Dilling from north and west but SAF repelled the attack. RSF is cutting highway supply lines between Dilling and Kadugli. RSF also retained control of all five Darfur states following their October 2025 siege of el-Fasher. An Egyptian general was killed in a drone strike in Kosti in early March — confirming Egypt's combat role coordinating with SAF. RSF security chief Hamid Ali Abubakar killed in a SAF drone strike in Central Darfur.
Famine has spread to more parts of Darfur — more than half of children under 5 suffer acute malnutrition in North Darfur. The UN describes el-Fasher as a "crime scene" after the RSF's takeover and reports of mass killings. RSF accused of genocide targeting non-Arab communities. 30,000+ civilians estimated massacred in el-Fasher alone. SAF's government returned to Khartoum January 11 after 3 years in Port Sudan exile. Chad shut its eastern border with Sudan on Feb 23. US-proposed Quad ceasefire (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) remains stalled as both sides set conditions for major offensives.
Military junta (Tatmadaw) vs People's Defence Force (PDF) and 20+ ethnic armed groups. Resistance forces now control large swaths of Myanmar's territory across multiple states — a historic first. 3.6 million displaced nationwide. 2026 Humanitarian Needs Plan: $890M needed to reach 4.9M people. Junta announced elections for December 2025/January 2026 — analysts call them "impossible to hold fairly amid civil war." UNAMA confirmed Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border clashes killed 56 civilians and injured 129 between Feb 26 and March 5, with women and children comprising 55% of casualties.
Rwanda-backed M23 seized North and South Kivu provinces — effectively annexing them per ICG. Seized Bukavu and Goma, two of DRC's largest cities. 7 million people displaced nationwide; 500,000 newly displaced in just the past few weeks. Parallel M23 administration signals long-term occupation ambitions. Trump brought DRC and Rwandan presidents to sign a peace deal — but intense fighting continues displacing civilians daily. More than 100 armed groups operate in eastern DRC. Key conflict driver: control of cobalt, coltan, gold, and other critical minerals.
The Houthi movement continues operating in Yemen and the Red Sea despite degraded capacity from prior US strikes. 140,000+ killed since war began in 2014. Humanitarian crisis among the world's worst — widespread famine, cholera, infrastructure collapse. Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Red Sea shipping continue as part of broader Iran-aligned "Axis of Resistance." Internal divisions between UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed Hadi government create a fragmented political landscape with no resolution in sight.
Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM has imposed a partial blockade of Mali's capital Bamako since September — militants controlling rural areas and squeezing military authorities. Risk of regime collapse growing in both Mali and Burkina Faso. All three Sahel nations (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) expelled French forces and MINUSMA, replaced by Russian Wagner/Africa Corps presence. ISIS in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) also expanding. Millions of civilians caught between jihadist siege, military juntas, and food insecurity. Crisis Group warns this is the "leading edge of full state collapse."
Armed gangs now control approximately 85-90% of Port-au-Prince. Over 8,100 killings documented in 2025 alone. 1.4 million displaced. Violence spreading well beyond the capital into previously stable areas. The Kenya-led multinational security support mission is severely under-resourced and under fire. No functioning central government. CFR rates Haiti as a Tier II conflict risk for wider regional spillover including migration crisis and narco-state consolidation.
Al-Shabaab controls active across 60% of southern Somalia despite AU mission operations. CFR warns US withdrawal of security assistance could enable significant territorial gains by Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia in 2026. Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab Lil Haq on February 27 — bombing Kabul and striking 22+ locations across Afghanistan in retaliation for TTP terrorist attacks. Afghanistan retaliated with drone strikes. UNAMA verified 56 civilians killed and 129 injured in the first six days. South Sudan: renewed fighting in Jonglei State since December 2025 after opposition seized government positions; civilians ordered to vacate Akobo ahead of military operations.
All active theaters are feeding each other. The Iran war choked Hormuz LNG supply, which forced Ukraine to reopen the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary/Slovakia — a direct geopolitical win for Russia who profits from both conflicts. Russia expanded intelligence-sharing with Iran after Feb 28. US resources, ammunition, and naval assets are now split across two simultaneous major conflicts. NATO planners designated this "critical strategic vulnerability" scenario years ago — it is now active.
Sudan's civil war is impacted by the Iran conflict too: UAE weapons shipments to the RSF temporarily halted in the first week of the Iran war as UAE dealt with retaliatory strikes, before resuming. Pakistan's war with Afghanistan diverts resources from counterterrorism. Every active conflict is now drawing resources away from every other. The world has not seen this level of simultaneous armed conflict since World War II.
IAEA: Iran's 460 kg of 60%-enriched uranium "most probably still there" — enough for ~11 weapons. Iran struck Dimona today — direct hit adjacent to Israel's nuclear research center. Israel at highest nuclear alert posture. CIA vs DIA split on whether Iran moved stockpile before war began. North Korea — now rated Tier I by CFR — is testing ICBMs and supplying Russia with artillery shells and missiles for Ukraine. Russia-NATO clash risk rated at "even odds" for 2026 by CFR, rated high-impact due to potential for direct US-Russia military confrontation.
Trump branded NATO allies "COWARDS" for refusing Hormuz mission. Only UK committed. France, Germany, Italy refusing military engagement in Iran theater. A French soldier killed in Erbil — France's first combat death in conflict. NATO intercepted three Iran-origin missiles near Turkey. Meanwhile, China continues purchasing Iranian oil via shadow fleet while Western shipping absorbs attack risk — a calculated asymmetric advantage. Beijing has not condemned the Natanz strikes and remains silent while profiting from Western distraction across all theaters.
Key indicators: US decision on Kharg Island blockade or occupation · Israeli "significantly increased" strikes this week · Whether Iran expands Hormuz interdiction to Asian shipping lanes · Russia Spring offensive force dispositions from ISW · G7 fracture over Iran ceasefire · IAEA access to post-strike Iranian nuclear sites · M23 / Rwanda Doha talks outcome · Sudan Quad ceasefire proposal acceptance · South Sudan Akobo military operations civilian impact · Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation or de-escalation · North Korea ICBM test window.